Characteristic Approach to Predicting Analysts’ Forecast Errors in the Finnish Market
Kinnunen, Kalle (2015)
Pro gradu -tutkielma
2015
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe201502231691
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe201502231691
Tiivistelmä
Extensive literature shows that analysts’ forecasts and recommendations are often biased. Thus, it is important for the financial market to be able to recognize this bias to be able to correctly valuate public companies.
This thesis uses characteristic approach, which was introduced by So (2013, pp. 615-640), to forecast analysts’ forecast errors and tests if predictable forecast error is fully incorporated into share prices. Data is collected of listed Finnish companies. Thesis’ timeframe spans over ten years from 2004 to 2013 consisting of 788 firm-years. Although there is earlier evidence that the characteristic approach is able to predict analysts’ forecast errors, no support for this is found in the Finnish market. This thesis contributes to the current knowledge by showing that the characteristic approach does not work universally as such but requires development to work especially in the smaller markets.
This thesis uses characteristic approach, which was introduced by So (2013, pp. 615-640), to forecast analysts’ forecast errors and tests if predictable forecast error is fully incorporated into share prices. Data is collected of listed Finnish companies. Thesis’ timeframe spans over ten years from 2004 to 2013 consisting of 788 firm-years. Although there is earlier evidence that the characteristic approach is able to predict analysts’ forecast errors, no support for this is found in the Finnish market. This thesis contributes to the current knowledge by showing that the characteristic approach does not work universally as such but requires development to work especially in the smaller markets.