Modeling the effects of the new Russian capacity mechanism on renewable energy investments

Abstract

Russian renewable energy policy, introduced in May 2013, is a capacity mechanism-based approach to support wind, solar, and small hydro power development in Russia. This paper explores the effect of the new mechanism on the profitability of new renewable energy investments with a numerical example. The sensitivity of project profitability to selected factors is studied and the results are compared ceteris paribus to results from a generic feed-in premium case. Furthermore, the paper gives a complete and detailed presentation of the capacity price calculation procedure tied to the support mechanism.

The results show that the new Russian renewable energy capacity mechanism offers a significant risk reduction to the investor in the form of dampening the sensitivity to external market factors. At the same time it shields the energy market system from excessive burden of renewable energy support. Even if the complexity of the method is a clear drawback to the detailed understanding of how the mechanism works, the design of the incentive policy could be an appealing alternative also for other emerging economies.