Transition towards long-term sustainability of the Finnish energy system

Abstract

This dissertation describes the meaning, potential elements and impact of a transition towards the long-term sustainability of the Finnish energy system. Such a transition is possible that would adhere to the goals of the Paris Agreement, aid in mitigating the threat of climate change, and abide by more broad sustainability guardrails that respect known planetary boundaries. Further, this dissertation envisions the components of a sustainable energy system in Finland by 2050 on linguistic, techno-economic and social bases. At the same time, a critical appraisal of the feasibility of such a vision is offered as a stimulant for greater societal discourse on energy related issues in Finland, and around the world.

The purpose of this research is to model and analyse scenarios for Finland from an energy system perspective, taking into account different sustainability dimensions, such as competitiveness, ecology, energy security and society. Research work includes the analysis of renewable energy integration into the Finnish energy system with high amounts of variable renewable electricity generation and new clean energy technologies and concepts. In most cases, the EnergyPLAN modelling tool was used to simulate possible future energy system scenarios for the purpose of comparison. In another case, the linguistic tool of Critical Discourse Analysis was used to negotiate through the meaning of the concept of change in energy systems. In still another, Futures Studies were employed to create a societal vision of a new age of renewable energy.

Results of this dissertation show that a transition towards greater long-term sustainability of the Finnish energy system can occur by 2050 in Finland. Further, it is shown how high shares of renewable energy, appropriate energy storage strategies, and flexibility measures can be employed that can result in an energy system which ensures the economic competitiveness, energy security, and social goals of Finland.