Energy security evaluation for the present and the future on a global level

Abstract

Energy Security is a universal concern for all stakeholders and achieving energy security is a crucial objective for all societies. Therefore, energy security became a major part of national security with the ability to shape policies and strategies. Its significance sparked questions of what energy security shall be, how to measure it and how to achieve it. Addressing these questions is the purpose of this dissertation. The objectives of this dissertation are to build a coherent, comprehensive and applicable framework for energy security, to test the framework’s applicability on present energy systems and future scenarios, and finally, to quantitatively evaluate energy security for all countries globally.

To achieve these objectives, a detailed literature review was used to track previous research about energy security and to collect all important elements to formulate a comprehensive energy security definition and analysis framework. Applying the framework with soft analysis on energy storage technologies was used to validate the framework. Simulating future energy scenarios for a case study was done using the LUT model. The projection of a future scenario was then analysed by the soft analysis method. A novel Energy Security Index was designed to measure all dimensions and parameters of energy security globally, enabling detailed analytical insights for all countries.

Results of the dissertation show the formulation of a generic definition of energy security together with a proper framework. The thermal energy storage (TES) was found to be the best option from the perspective of energy security through the application of this framework on the exemplarily energy sub-system of energy storage technologies. Modelling a future energy scenario for Jordan to achieve a 100% renewable energy system proved its feasibility and benefit for the economy, environment and for energy security, where most of the analysed dimensions are affected positively by such a scenario. Finally, evaluating energy security globally showed, for the first time, a detailed and transparent ranking of all countries; the findings indicate that Germany achieved the highest level of energy security in the world.

It is concluded that this framework for analysing energy security globally is the most generic, comprehensive and applicable to evaluate energy security. It is recommended for policy makers to build strategies that enhance energy security results in their countries.