Hyppää sisältöön
    • Suomeksi
    • På svenska
    • In English
  • Suomeksi
  • In English
  • Kirjaudu
Näytä aineisto 
  •   Etusivu
  • LUTPub
  • Tieteelliset julkaisut
  • Näytä aineisto
  •   Etusivu
  • LUTPub
  • Tieteelliset julkaisut
  • Näytä aineisto
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Assessing the performance of deep learning models for multivariate probabilistic energy forecasting

Mashlakov, Aleksei; Kuronen, Toni; Lensu, Lasse; Kaarna, Arto; Honkapuro, Samuli (2021-01-16)

Katso/Avaa
mashlakov_et_al_assessing_the_performance_publishers_version.pdf (3.593Mb)
Lataukset: 


Publishers version

Mashlakov, Aleksei
Kuronen, Toni
Lensu, Lasse
Kaarna, Arto
Honkapuro, Samuli
16.01.2021

Applied Energy

285

Elsevier

School of Energy Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116405
Näytä kaikki kuvailutiedot
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe202101222501

Tiivistelmä

Deep learning models have the potential to advance the short-term decision-making of electricity market participants and system operators by capturing the complex dependences and uncertainties of power system operation. Currently, however, the adoption of global deep learning models for multivariate energy forecasting in power systems is far behind the developments in the deep learning research field. In this context, the objectives of this study are to review recent developments in the field of probabilistic, multivariate, and multihorizon time series forecasting and empirically evaluate the performance of novel global deep learning models for forecasting wind and solar generation, electricity load, and wholesale electricity price for intraday and day-ahead time horizons. Two forecast types, deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, are studied. The evaluation data consist of real-world datasets with hourly resolution at the levels of an individual customer and regional and national electricity market bidding zones. The model evaluation criteria include achievable levels of forecasting accuracy and uncertainty risks, hyperparameter sensitivity, the effect of exogenous variables and fieldwise dataset split, and run-time efficiency factors, such as memory utilization, simulation time, electricity consumption, and convergence rate. We conclude that the performance of the global models is more beneficial for intraday forecasts of heterogeneous datasets with nonuniform patterns of time series, but can be affected by the hyperparameter sensitivity and hardware limitations with the growth of dataset dimensionality. The results can serve as a reference point for the quantitative evaluation of deep learning models for probabilistic multivariate energy forecasting in power systems.

Lähdeviite

Mashlakov, A., Kuronen, T., Lensu, L., Kaarna, A., Honkapuro, S. (2021). Assessing the performance of deep learning models for multivariate probabilistic energy forecasting. Applied Energy, vol. 285. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116405

Alkuperäinen verkko-osoite

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920317748?via%3Dihub
Kokoelmat
  • Tieteelliset julkaisut [1590]
LUT-yliopisto
PL 20
53851 Lappeenranta
Ota yhteyttä | Tietosuoja | Saavutettavuusseloste
 

 

Tämä kokoelma

JulkaisuajatTekijätNimekkeetKoulutusohjelmaAvainsanatSyöttöajatYhteisöt ja kokoelmat

Omat tiedot

Kirjaudu sisäänRekisteröidy
LUT-yliopisto
PL 20
53851 Lappeenranta
Ota yhteyttä | Tietosuoja | Saavutettavuusseloste