Transition towards decarbonised power systems for sub-Saharan Africa by 2050

Abstract

Globally, power systems are undergoing significant structural changes, spurred primarily by declining cost of renewable energy technologies, changing demand patterns, energy security concerns, increasing scarcity of fossil fuels, and above all, efforts to mitigate climate change. Energy crisis and high vulnerability to climate change are projected to hinder Africa’s development goals. For these reasons, this thesis investigates the integration of large shares of renewables, such as solar and wind energy, into African power systems on a national and regional resolution, in view of tackling the two major challenges faced globally; climate change and widespread of energy poverty. Pathways towards a decarbonised power system for sub-Saharan Africa is researched on an hourly resolution, incorporating all current energy technologies accessible in the market.

The aim of this research is to model and analyse scenarios for countries and regions in Africa from an energy system perspective, without violating the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. This study builds on profound techno-economic principles and relies firmly on power system engineering logic for designing a least-cost power system. The techno-economic analysis of the transition is carried out with the LUT Energy System Transition Model, while the socio-economic aspects are examined in terms of job creation, greenhouse gas emission reduction and improved energy access.

The results of this thesis show that it is cost-competitive, low greenhouse gas emitting, less water-intensive and most job-rich option to gradually transition Africa’s power system from fossil fuels dominated to renewables, with an evolving dominant share of solar photovoltaics, complemented by wind energy, bioenergy and hydropower. Such a transition is coherent with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations, which is an important fact for African countries to realise the Africa’s Vision 2063. Furthermore, it is shown that the growth of variable renewable energy sources in the power system necessitates the need for system flexibility to ensure a reliable electricity supply. However, these flexibility measures are not too expensive to annul the economics of renewables. Africa shows an excellent prerequisite for energy and land resources to technically host a renewable led electricity generation, while meeting the growing demand with the greatest societal welfare. The techno-economic prospects for transitioning Africa’s power system as illustrated in this research presents a platform for meaningful policy dialogue. This study is the first of its kind for Africa.