European Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy – Transport Sector

Abstract

This chapter presents a technically feasible and economically viable energy pathway for Europe, in which the energy sector (comprised of power, heat, transport, and desalination) reaches 100% renewable energy and zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The research highlights the transition of the transport sector, which is currently dependent on fossil fuels to a great extent, towards being driven by 100% renewables. The transport sector achieves zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, mainly through direct and indirect electrification in the form of synthetic fuels, such as hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The methods are comprised of the derivation of the transportation demand, which is converted into final energy demand for direct electrification along with production of hydrogen, methane and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The power-to-gas (H2, CH4) and power-to-liquids (Fischer-Tropsch fuels) value chains are applied for the total energy demand, which is fulfilled entirely by renewables in 2050. The primary energy demand for the transport sector decreases from 21,000 TWh in 2015 to around 20,000 TWh by 2050, driven by massive gains in energy efficiency with a high level of direct and indirect electrification of more than 85% in 2050. While, the final energy demand for transport decreases from 7000 TWh/a in 2015 to 5000 TWh/a, despite the assumed growth of passenger and freight transportation, mainly driven by the massive electrification of road transport. Solar PV and wind energy emerge as the most prominent energy supply sources with around 62% and 32%, respectively, of the total electricity supply by 2050. Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with around 83% of total electricity storage output. Fuel conversion technologies such as water electrolysis, methanation, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and others, supply renewable-based fuels along with sustainably produced biofuels and electrification to ensure a 100% renewable energy-based transport sector across Europe. The levelised cost of energy for a fully sustainable energy system across Europe remains stable in the range of €50–60/MWh through the transition from 2015 to 2050. The final annualised energy costs for transport remain around 300–450 b€ per year through the transition period, with a massive reduction for road transport, while increases for marine and aviation transport by 2050 are projected. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced from about 4200 megatonnes CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 2015 in the entire energy system to zero by 2050, with cumulative GHG emissions of around 85 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq). While, GHG emissions in the transport sector can be reduced from about 1900 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, this could be further accelerated with ambitious policies and targets across Europe. Consequently, a 100% renewable energy system across the transport sector in Europe is far more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil fuel-based option, and most importantly compatible with the Paris Agreement.