Energy transition pathway towards large share of renewable energy in the power, heat and transport sectors for Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the fastest developing countries with 166 million people residing in an area of 147,570 km2 with the population expected to grow to about 237 million by 2045. Consequently, the demand for energy will grow enormously with rising population and increasing purchasing power. On the other hand, it is a country which is extremely vulnerable to the devastating impacts of climate change like the rising sea level and irregular monsoons. Currently, Bangladesh depends on domestic and imported fossil fuels to satisfy its energy needs. However, it has an enormous potential of renewable energy, especially solar energy. More than 95% renewable energy share by 2045, is possible in the energy sector as shown by this research. This is possible by utilizing indigenous renewable energy available in Bangladesh, making it completely independent of energy imports, and having universal access to energy. The LUT Energy System Transition Model is used to simulate a pathway towards large of share of renewable energy in 5-year time steps from 2020 to 2045. By 2045, the share of renewables in the entire energy system reaches about 99%, with the majority of generation from solar PV. The levelised cost of electricity first peaks in 2025 to about 88 €/MWh, then starts decreasing and 2045 it drops to 36 €/MWh. The price on GHG emissions accelerates the energy transition, however cost competitiveness of renewables forces a decline in fossil fuel usage in the energy system. Solar photovoltaics with a share of 99% plays a key role in 2045. As a result, GHG emissions decrease from a peak of 126 MtCO2eq in 2030 to 18 MtCO2eq in 2045. An energy transition to a sustainable and secure energy system for all by 2045 is both technically possible and economically feasible.