Energy modeling for sustainable policymaking: state of the art and future challenges

Abstract

Green energy and sustainability transition pose new challenges and questions for policymaking. Uncertainties around future uninterrupted and affordable access to energy, sectoral and technology developments, demand, supply, and behavioral aspects, among other things, are driving methodological developments in the energy modeling. The development of energy models and design alternatives allow scientists and, through expert analysis, policy makers to assess current and future developments, to examine alternative technology, policy and socio-economic development paths of the future, and to lay the ground for optimal policy actions for current and future energy systems and markets. This chapter discusses the recent developments in energy modeling and the demand for new methodological approaches to address pressing issues of policy relevance. Some popular models that have provided useful insights for policy design and future directions of interest are examined. This is undertaken while keeping in mind the historic perspectives of energy modeling that indicate the omnipresent influence of policy needs on the methodological developments in energy modeling. Current policy needs and methods indicate the potential usefulness, possibility, and relevance of incorporating behavioral characteristics into sectoral, economic, energy, and environmental models.