Forecasting Finland-Korea bilateral trade with the Box-Jenkins method
Dan, Sangwoo (2022)
Pro gradu -tutkielma
2022
School of Business and Management, Kauppatieteet
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2022062047937
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2022062047937
Tiivistelmä
This thesis aims to investigate the trade relationship between Finland and South Korea, and forecast future progress by building time-series models with the Box-Jenkins methods. The source of the research data is the database of the Finnish Custom that is called “Uljas” (uljas.tulli.fi). Two time-series data, monthly Finnish export to South Korea and monthly Finnish import from South Korea, have been acquired for further analysis and model building. The period of the original data is from January 1996 to December 2021 and the total number of observations is 312 for each data.
The model building process follows the steps of the Box-Jenkins method. After a brief exploratory analysis, import and export data are checked for stationarity. Then, following the identification, estimation, and diagnosis checking stages, two time-series models are built. In the conclusion part, 10-year future monthly imports and exports are forecasted. According to the forecasts, the bilateral trade between Finland and South Korea is anticipated to show steady growth in the long term.
The model building process follows the steps of the Box-Jenkins method. After a brief exploratory analysis, import and export data are checked for stationarity. Then, following the identification, estimation, and diagnosis checking stages, two time-series models are built. In the conclusion part, 10-year future monthly imports and exports are forecasted. According to the forecasts, the bilateral trade between Finland and South Korea is anticipated to show steady growth in the long term.