South Asia’s Energy [R]evolution – Transition towards defossilised power systems by 2050 with special focus on India

Abstract

Current energy systems, with fossil fuels in the midst, are completely unsustainable on all accounts of environmental, social, and economic criteria. Consequently, global energy systems are undergoing transitions, primarily driven by climate change concerns, energy security fears, the cost competitiveness of renewable energy (RE), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Similarly, developing countries in the South Asian region, currently home to 24% of the world’s population, are at the crossroads of such an energy transition, due to their high dependency on fossil fuels, especially coal. Thus, an energy transition towards integrating RE would address energy security, accessibility, and affordability, with the additional benefits of reducing air pollution and addressing the issue of water scarcity.

Against this background, the overall aim of this dissertation is to model, analyse and assess the techno-economic feasibility of the various energy transition pathways and scenarios integrating renewables for the South Asian region as well as for some of the individual countries within this region. First, the economic viability and technical feasibility of an overnight shift from the current fossil fuel dominated power system to a 100% RE-based system in 2030 is analysed on a macro level for the entire South Asian region. With scenario variations, the role of regional integration via power grids and sector coupling through integration of Power-to-Gas (PtG) and seawater reverse osmosis desalination is studied. Second, at a national level, the transition of current power systems is shown and analysed in 5-year time steps until 2050 for differences in transition pathways and to study each of the transition pathway in detail. Additionally, it is shown that each country in South Asia can transition towards a 100% RE-based system independently, utilising its own indigenous renewable resources. Furthermore, the transition of the entire energy sector (power, heat and transport) is analysed for Nepal and Bhutan, as these countries present an interesting case, due to their high dependency on hydropower, unsustainable biomass, and imported fossil fuels in the energy system. As the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Asia, the power system of India is analysed in more detail on a state-wide resolution, with the impact of the monsoon on a 100% RE-based power system. Third, with high shares of variable RE in the energy systems, various flexibility options are studied, such as storage technologies, transmission grids, and Power-to-X solutions. The LUT Energy System Transition Model is used in this dissertation to model the energy transition pathways for the South Asian region and the individual countries. The LUT-ESTM linearly optimizes the target function i.e., to have a least annual cost of the power or energy system. The important features of the LUT-ESTM are high spatial and temporal resolution, a multimodal power transmission network and sector coupling.

The results of this dissertation show that the South Asian region is on the cusp of solar photovoltaics (PV) powered revolution. Thus, a cost optimised rapid transition from the current fossil fuel dominated power and energy systems towards 100% RE across the countries in South Asia is possible by integrating large shares of solar PV, complemented by wind power, hydropower, and modern uses of biomass. However, integrating large shares of VRE into the energy system calls for various new least cost portfolio of flexibility solutions. Batteries for temporal load shifting, transmission grids for spatial load shifting, and PtG provide the flexibility to a 100% RE-based system, even during the monsoon season. This transition not only decreases the cost of electricity but also enables other indirect economic benefits like reducing air pollution and the corresponding health costs, creating additional jobs, and reducing fossil fuel imports. As one of the most highly water stressed regions in the world that is entirely dependent on irrigation from fresh groundwater resources, seawater desalination using low cost RE provides an alternative source of freshwater, thus solving the existing and future water crises in the region. As one of the most important countries in the world to achieve climate change mitigation goals, India’s energy transition towards 100% RE could be a model to follow for other emerging and developing countries to demonstrate that robust economic growth is possible without an increase in GHG emissions while achieving SDGs.

The results of this dissertation contribute to the constructive discourse of the energy transition discussion currently taking place in the countries of this region. Consequently, this will help local as well as national governments, policymakers, and citizens better understand that such a transition from the current energy systems towards 100% RE is cost competitive and societally attractive. However, achieving a 100% RE-based system will require unwavering focus, political will, and coordination among all the stakeholders involved at the national and regional levels.