Review of critical materials for the energy transition, an analysis of global resources and production databases and the state of material circularity

Abstract

The demand for raw materials, in particular, for those classified as critical materials, has increased considerably due to the ongoing energy transition and the corresponding surge in the use of renewable energy technologies. In this context, this review paper analyses literature on reserves, resources, and production data of critical materials, which are required for the energy transition, to understand the connection between the present criticality definition and long-term sustainability. The link to long-term sustainability was studied by applying bell curve production projections. The analysis shows that the present criticality concept and classification is predominantly a reflection of a short-term local political construct, which may be consumption- or production-driven, or a mixture of both, depending on the classifying country. Based on material databases and the corresponding logistic production bell curves, severe limitations of primary supply could emerge from materials, such as antimony, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, indium, molybdenum, nickel, silver, and zinc within two decades. Furthermore, all studied materials are projected eventually to be severely critical. Thus, local efforts will likely have a limited capability to effectively address the long-term risk associated with the production and use of critical materials. Moreover, without concerted global effort, the present criticality concept may not be effective in addressing even the short-term supply bottleneck, particularly for the accelerating energy transition, that it aspires to address. Hence, applying the criticality concept at the global level carries special potential to mitigate the supply risk by mobilising all stakeholders based on a well-informed understanding of materials flows.