Analysis for the development of an optimization model for reserve market participation
Salonen, Eero (2023)
Diplomityö
2023
School of Energy Systems, Energiatekniikka
Kaikki oikeudet pidätetään.
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe20230927137561
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe20230927137561
Tiivistelmä
Reserve markets are continuously developing to meet the demands of a changing energy system. The share of intermittent renewable energy production methods is increasing, and this drives the demand for more flexible energy resources in the system to operate alongside in order to ensure system reliability. The demand of reserve capacity and pricing of available partaking resources decide the final reserve pricing, and taking advantage of changing reserve prices is of importance for maximising profit.
Volue Energy Services has developed an optimization model for optimising a consumption or production energy resource for reserve market use in terms of profitability. The goal of the model is to create a bidding plan with the most profitable reserve market options for each market time unit of the next day in the Finnish energy system while considering all available market options. This thesis is to analyse and discuss different aspects of the model to provide developmental points for further versions of the model.
The operation and applicability of the model for multiple production and consumption technologies is examined to assess the potential operation of the model with different use cases. The features and technological capabilities for certain technologies of interest are examined to assess the potential of operation with current limitations of the model for future development.
The quality of the model is assessed through analysis of accuracy of the forecast methods from the perspective of capacity component and energy component. The model’s forecast quality is analysed with reserve market capacity pricing data to provide accuracy statistics for the forecasting method of the model, to assess the usability and benefit of the model for commercial application. The effect of energy component in low variable cost scenarios to the result of the models is analysed utilising a perfect forecast to assess what kind of effect the energy component can have to the result of the model.
Volue Energy Services has developed an optimization model for optimising a consumption or production energy resource for reserve market use in terms of profitability. The goal of the model is to create a bidding plan with the most profitable reserve market options for each market time unit of the next day in the Finnish energy system while considering all available market options. This thesis is to analyse and discuss different aspects of the model to provide developmental points for further versions of the model.
The operation and applicability of the model for multiple production and consumption technologies is examined to assess the potential operation of the model with different use cases. The features and technological capabilities for certain technologies of interest are examined to assess the potential of operation with current limitations of the model for future development.
The quality of the model is assessed through analysis of accuracy of the forecast methods from the perspective of capacity component and energy component. The model’s forecast quality is analysed with reserve market capacity pricing data to provide accuracy statistics for the forecasting method of the model, to assess the usability and benefit of the model for commercial application. The effect of energy component in low variable cost scenarios to the result of the models is analysed utilising a perfect forecast to assess what kind of effect the energy component can have to the result of the model.