Sustainable energy transition for Pakistan: Assessing the role energy, water supply, social and gender equity dimensions

Abstract

The main aim of this dissertation is to evaluate the energy, water and social dimensions of a 100% renewable energy system in Pakistan. Techno-economic aspects of the sustainable energy transition are assessed by modelling various scenarios integrating electricity, transport, heating and desalination sectors. Moreover, gender vulnerabilities of low-carbon transitions are mapped by a systematic review of the available literature since gender was under-researched in low-carbon transition studies.

To model Pakistan’s 100% renewable energy pathways, the LUT Energy System Transition Model (LUT-ESTM) is used in this dissertation. LUT-ESTM linearly optimises the target function, i.e., to choose the least annual cost option for the energy system. LUT-ESTM is characterised by its high spatial and temporal resolution, multinodal power transmission network, and sector coupling. Pakistan’s energy system is analysed using 5-year intervals from 2015 to 2050. The possibility of a transition to an entirely renewable energy-based system is demonstrated, using the country’s own renewable resources. Examining different flexibility options, such as storage and Powerto-X, is necessary to integrate significant amounts of variable renewable energy in the system.

An energy transition from the present fossil fuel-dependent power and energy system towards 100% renewable energy is achievable by incorporating large shares of solar photovoltaic, accompanied by wind power, hydropower, and modern bioenergy uses. However, obstacles and needs for new flexibility solutions arise with integrating substantial percentages of variable renewable energy into the energy system. As presented in this dissertation, batteries, transmission grids, and Power-to-Gas provide the required flexibility for a 100% renewable energy-based system. This energy transition not only reduces the cost of electricity but also offers other implicit economic, environmental, and societal advantages like decreasing emissions, producing additional jobs, and lowering dependence on fossil fuels. Furthermore, as one of the extremely water-stressed nations in the world that is completely reliant on the availability of fresh groundwater resources and highly inefficient irrigation systems, seawater desalination utilising affordable renewable energy offers a viable solution, solving the nation's present and future water crises.

The outcomes of this dissertation provide scientific knowledge for the discourse on the necessity of a sustainable, clean, and cost-effective energy transition in the country. Therefore, this dissertation will contribute to the body of knowledge that such a transition from the present energy system towards a 100% renewable energy-based system is technically possible and economically competitive. The analysis also provides several insights into the techno-economic viability of a fully sustainable energy system, hoping it will aid researchers and policymakers in Pakistan in addressing issues about the energy system and water scarcity. In addition, it is anticipated that the work on gender vulnerabilities will collectively advance the understanding of the disproportionate distribution of the benefits and challenges connected with low-carbon transitions and their relationship to social and political inequalities for different genders. Developing a fully renewable energy-based energy system would need undivided attention, political willpower, and tight coordination among all the involved parties at the local and national levels.