Geopolitical shocks and transition to low carbon energy system in Finland : case of Russian invasion of Ukraine and the following energy crisis

Abstract

This master's thesis studied the impacts of geopolitical shocks on Finland's transition to a low carbon energy system, focusing on the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the following energy crisis. The research utilized the method of qualitative content analysis to identify key themes in the textual data, highlighting the most prevalent topics discussed in the data. The thesis examined the immediate responses of the country to external shocks and the following energy crisis, based on data collected from February 2022 to end of 2023. The textual data analysed was collected from two Finnish media sources, Ministry of Employment and Economic Affairs press releases and documents and International Energy Agency report. The analysis identified five key themes 1) energy security concerns, 2) energy dependency as a geopolitical risk, 3) economic implications of the shock on the energy sector, 4) Fennovoima and the future of nuclear power, and 5) energy transition policies. The results highlighted the complexities and challenges the shock created for Finland’s low carbon energy transition, while also emphasizing the shifts in geopolitical relations with Russia, incentive to phase out fossil fuels, and commitment to current and further energy transition policies as aspects that may positively impact the country’s low carbon energy transition. The thesis contributes important national context to the immediate impacts of the shock on Finland’s low carbon energy transition.