Implementing a carbon-neutral and emission-free Finnish energy system by 2035 and 2040 via accelerated climate efforts scenarios

Abstract

This thesis assesses possible developments for the Finnish energy system in attempts to align with the European Union and national carbon neutrality and reduction goals and aims of the ACE LIFE project to support carbon neutrality development in Finland. This thesis will first explore the important facets of the Finnish energy system concerning the heat, power, transportation, and industrial sectors. This thesis also explored the potential and avenues for developing small modular nuclear reactors, green hydrogen, biogas, battery storage, prosumers, and other Power-to-X pathways in the Finnish energy system. The generation of specific energy scenarios was developed utilizing the EnergyPLAN software to generate seven future scenarios containing different renewable development pathways. It was condensed into accelerated climate efforts and TEM groupings with a scenario based on 2022, used as a reference scenario. An island scenario, with no imports and all demands met by domestic production, was also constructed. The results generated from each scenario showed that current Finnish policies, projected fuel and energy demands, and actual availability of carbon sinks will prevent the full realization of a carbon-neutral Finland by 2035 and that only via more accelerated climate efforts, such as a greater deployment of solar, onshore and offshore wind, and battery and other storage solutions is carbon neutrality in Finland achievable and cost-competitive when compared to current energy system costs.