Sustainable energy transition options for Russia

Abstract

In accordance with international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, one of the ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimise the consequences of climate change is to achieve the goal of a sustainable energy supply, primarily through renewable energy sources. Focusing on Russia’s pivotal role in the regional energy landscape, this study examines various strategies and routes for transitioning to a sustainable energy system.

Potential scenarios and options for ensuring sustainability in the power, heat, transport, and industrial sectors of Russia are presented. The study leverages an energy-industry system transition model in hourly resolution to investigate various policy scenarios ranging from 100% renewable energy in 2050 to net-zero emissions by 2060 with higher shares of nuclear power, to explore the feasibility and economic implications of the transition to a carbon neutral energy system. The results shows that respective transition pathways are technically feasible and economically viable. The analysis reveals that achieving zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 and very high renewable energy shares composed by wind power, solar photovoltaics, hydropower, and bioenergy, and deployment of power-to-X technologies is the lowest cost solution while leading to minimal CO₂ emissions. The study highlights the necessity of robust policy backing and infrastructure development to enable this transition, serving as a foundation for economic growth powered by affordable and sustainable energy solutions.