Calculating carbon emissions of the ICT sector : analyzing key drivers and future trends

Abstract

This research addresses the pressing issue of accurately calculating and predicting the carbon emissions of the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite increasing attention, the methodologies and factors influencing ICT’s carbon footprint remain ambiguous. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating a systematic literature review, time series analysis, and regression analysis, to identify significant factors and predict future emissions. Key findings reveal that electricity consumption is the most critical factor driving ICT emissions, along with device shipments and energy demand. Predictive models suggest a steady increase in carbon emissions, reaching 945 MtCO₂e in 2030 and 991 MtCO₂e by 2035, and highlight discrepancies with previous studies. The study emphasizes the need for standardized calculating methodologies and constant monitoring to inform policy and industrial actions successfully. Limitations include reliance on estimated past values and a broad approach that does not account for the entire life-cycle of ICT devices. Future research should focus on detailed data collection and ongoing collaboration to address the dynamic nature of technological advancements. This study provides a foundation for more accurate and informed strategies to mitigate the environmental impact of the ICT sector.