Pathways towards a low cost fully sustainable energy supply for Iran

Abstract

The Paris Agreement and the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) require nations to curtail their greenhouse gas emissions, but Iran faces a significant challenge due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Despite its abundant solar and wind resources, less than 1% of its installed power capacity comes from these renewable sources. To overcome this challenge and build a sustainable energy system, Iran must invest in renewable energy and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Doing so could benefit the environment, energy infrastructure, and socio-economic conditions of the country, while also helping it meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement.

The main focus of this dissertation is to show transition pathways for the Iranian power system over the period spanning from 2015 to 2050, through several distinct scenarios. By modelling various renewable energy scenarios, it is possible to identify a least cost pathway toward a fully renewable power system. These scenarios differ in terms of the sectors involved and the annual growth of renewable energy power capacity. Additionally, a scenario based on the country's existing policies is examined. In all scenarios, the proposed power structure is optimised to minimise costs while meeting the defined limitations such as electricity demand, capacity constraints, and techno-economic restrictions. While this dissertation primarily focuses on Iran's electricity sector, it also analyses the integration of desalination and industrial gas sectors and their impacts on achieving a least-cost transition through various scenarios.

The role of storage technologies in addressing the challenges arising from intermittent renewable energy generation is considered to be of utmost importance. Pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) is a mature and widely used utility-scale storage option, but finding suitable locations for construction can be challenging. To address this issue, this dissertation proposes a methodology grounded in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify ideal locations for building pumped hydro energy storage plants. This research is the first to assess the potential of PHES across Iran and develops a replicable method for identifying suitable locations for PHES construction using an automated GIS-based model applicable to any selected region or country.

The findings of this dissertation reveal that Iran has the potential to establish a sustainable and cost-effective power system that relies solely on renewable energy sources, with solar and wind energy being the dominant sources. The results indicate that current policies would result in an inefficient power system with high levelised cost of electricity and significant CO2 emissions. Finally, the analysis of pumped hydro energy storage model reveals the considerable potential within Iran for the establishment of pumped hydro energy storage sites, with the technical potential being sufficient to fulfil the storage requirements of a sustainable energy system founded on renewable energy.