Effect of temperature on seasonal wind power and energy potential estimates in Nordic climates

Abstract

A major obstacle standing in the way of full‐scale adoption of renewable energy sources is their intermittency and seasonal variability. To better understand the power generation dynamics, the effect of air density due to temperature on power and energy generation figures was modelled. The model uses historical ERA5 data and considers changes in weather patterns in a subarctic climate where seasonal changes are most pronounced. The power generation figures of using a mean and a dynamic air density value were compared and the results show that power generation estimates may be under‐ and overestimated by on average 5% up to 10% in winter and summer, respectively. This can have implications for the sizing of power transmission infrastructure and energy storage in both on‐grid and off‐grid applications as well as power availability. The topic is highly relevant in the Nordic countries where roughly 10% of new global added wind capacity is installed annually. Temperature has a direct effect on air density and as a result on wind power generation. In the Nordic countries, where temperature differences of over 50°C are commonly experienced between seasons, understanding the effect of temperature on peak wind power generation is crucial for system level dimensioning of the grid. The research quantifies the peak wind power generation values compared to using an average mean air density using hourly ERA5 data.