Land use strategies, environmental impact, and regulatory frameworks for scaling solar PV and green hydrogen in Finland : a study on sustainable energy development and policy alignment

Abstract

The theoretical and practical potential of large-scale solar PV expansion in Finland, including both non-forest land and poorly productive forest land, is evaluated in this thesis, which also examines the land use implications of green hydrogen production. The research determines land footprints, energy yields, and environmental impacts related to scaling PV capacity by analysing national land-use data and conducting scenario-based calculations.

According to the primary scenario that targets non-forested areas such as crops, grasslands, wetlands, and settlements, approximately 342 kha can accommodate 152 GW of solar PV and generate around 166 TWh of electricity annually, which exceeds Finland's current consumption by more than two times. The potential for deforestation is low under this configuration, and the net environmental risks are relatively small. A secondary scenario is examining the addition of 3.62 million hectares of unproductive forest land, which would increase capacity by around 1609 GW (1762 TWh/year). Although carbon payback times suggest that deforestation emissions (about 3041 Mt CO₂eq) could be offset in one to two years purely by solar power production offsets, broader concerns – such as biodiversity loss, peat soil disturbances, and socio-economic effects on forest-reliant communities – question the feasibility of large-scale clearing. Although a theoretical maximum scenario exceeds 6000 GW, it only has limited real-world applicability due to disregarding environmental, social, and policy constraints.

The study further evaluates the synergy of solar power and green hydrogen production, illustrating that a 20 MW electrolyzer alone would demand roughly 160 MW of solar capacity – translating into some 360 hectares of panels – even before considering essential Balance of Plant infrastructure such as compressors, cooling units, and hydrogen storage. Consequently, the land footprint for large-scale green hydrogen deployment could be considerably higher than the initial figures suggest, underscoring the importance of thorough site assessments and integrated land-use planning when coupling hydrogen production with expansive solar deployment. Although EU-level regulations (e.g., Renewable Energy Directive III) encourage green hydrogen development, the extent of land use and environmental impacts still highlights the need for cautious planning and regulatory supervision to ensure genuine sustainability.

The findings show that Finland can significantly improve its energy security, decrease emissions, and even export solar-derived electricity or green hydrogen. Realizing these possibilities requires coordinating national and European policy goals with strong land-use measures, meaningful stakeholder engagement, and grid modernization to accommodate high shares of intermittent renewable power. The thesis presents strategic insights on how to balance emission reductions, biodiversity preservation, and socio-economic objectives, ultimately providing guidance to policymakers, industry stakeholders, and environmental advocates in shaping Finland's renewable energy future.