Beyond carbon : assessing Australia's future energy transition scenarios and how they meet sustainability criteria

Abstract

During the Paris agreement 2015, a major step was taken in the following commitment period, and a new goal for reducing emissions was proposed. In order for these agreements to succeed, the participation needed to be global, and thus all member states were expected to make policy changes in reflection of their emissions. This thesis focuses on the 3 transition scenarios put forward in 2023 by the Australian Energy Market Operator in response to Australia’s commitment to the 2015 Paris agreements, these being Green Energy Exports (GEE), Step Change (SC) and Progressive Change (PC). Each transition scenario was compared and evaluated using the stoplight method, and through this, possible effects on Planetary Boundaries other than just Climate Change were assessed. The main factors of each scenario, for example electrification or decarbonisation were assessed, as their role in Australia’s energy transition may be vital. Research like this is essential in order to gauge possible implications in the future, as an energy transition may end up becoming harmful if many negative implications come out of it. This study found that while GEE and SC had heavier investments overall in some factors (electrification, decarbonisation, personal battery usage, etc) the effects of these transitions may be diminished if done incorrectly. This is especially shown through the increase in EVs, which may be sourced from places cheaply or unsustainably made. PC in general showed a lack of investment in comparison to GEE and SC and may not be able to meet climate goals at all. This study compares these scenarios, and in doing so shows possible future flaws within them.