Estimating electricity demand growth and identifying capacity expansion strategies for mini-grids in rural China

Abstract

This paper intends to estimate the growth of the rural electricity demand in China and decide the expansion strategy of mini-grid. Firstly, the introduction of the research background, purpose and approaches are presented, in which time - series forecasting method and deep learning method are involved. By literature review, the current research situation of rural electricity demand forecasting, mini-grid and energy storage technology are clarified. Then, the prediction model of the growth of rural electricity demand is established, in which multivariate forecasting method and deep-learning algorithms are used to analyze the prediction effect. The expansion demand of rural mini-grid is evaluated in consideration of the current situation and the impact of demand growth. Then, the mini-grid expansion plan is proposed based on the principles of economy, reliability and environment friendliness. In which, the configuration of centralized energy storage system and mini-grid demand - response strategy are optimized. Finally, the research results are summarized, policy suggestions are put forward and the limitations of research and the future prospect are presented.