Review and research gaps mapping of energy transition modelling research on low electricity access countries

Abstract

Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, especially those in rural areas lack access to electricity. In most of these regions, the communities still rely on traditional means of energy such as firewood, which may not be sustainable and environmentally friendly. Compared to developed countries, few studies have been done to determine ways to transition energy to reduce the huge energy gap. Through reviewing case studies on the energy models used in sub-Saharan Africa, which forms the majority of the low electricity access countries, this thesis helps show the barriers to energy access and the progress made so far. First, the thesis gives an overview of the renewable energy and hybrid systems used in sub-Saharan Africa and shows some of the policy and institutional challenges. It summarizes the existent tools of electrification planning in three broad categories, namely; traditional simulation models, optimization models and geospatial-based models. The research design and collection methods applied include an in-depth literature review that used the LUT Primo library and thematic analysis, which allowed the selection of literature sources relevant to electrification planning in sub-Saharan Africa using energy models.

The research findings are presented by discussing the following energy models; HOMER, MESSAGE, LEAP, OnSSET, PyPSA-Earth, TRNSYS and OSeMOSYS. The findings analyze the contributions of each of the models to electrification in the study region and show their benefits, applications, and limitations. A table of the energy models is used to summarize the models based on their key features, strengths, weaknesses, and usage. After analyzing the energy models, the thesis discussion highlights the factors affecting the application of energy models for electrification in sub-Saharan Africa in the broad categories of social, economic, and environmental aspects. It is revealed that the main challenges to energy transition and electrification in the region are due to financial constraints caused by huge capital investments required by the mostly poor countries. On the positive side, there is huge potential for electrification in the region due to an abundance of renewable energy sources, including solar PV, wind, hydro, and biomass.

Through the research process, the thesis depicts the need for policymakers to familiarize themselves with the operation of various energy models to aid in their decision-making. The importance of community engagement cannot be overstated in ensuring inclusive energy planning while for researchers, the thesis shows that multi-disciplinary approaches must be used in ensuring energy access. Some limitations to the study and future recommendations are included at the end of the thesis to guide the coming studies of energy models and electrification in sub-Saharan Africa.