Techno-economic analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicles : assessing the financial viability of BE-HDEVs through TCO modelling

Abstract

This thesis explores the transition towards Zero-Emission Heavy Duty transportation by doing a thorough techno-economic analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDEVs). Key principles explored in the research are the impact of batteries and total cost of ownership (TCO) on the adoption of electric vehicles on a large scale. This analysis covers in-depth evaluations of Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC), Nickel Cobalt Aluminium (NCA) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP), along with their functions, costs and advantages in HDEVs. The analysis reveals that NMC and NCA batteries are generally preferred for long-distance applications due to their higher energy density, while LFP batteries are more suited to short-haul and urban operations because of their superior thermal stability and longer life cycle. The TCO assessment incorporates acquisition costs, operational expenses, maintenance requirements, and charging infrastructure considerations, while accounting for evolving battery prices and regulatory developments across European markets. The study reveals that although HDEVs currently require higher upfront investment compared to conventional diesel vehicles, their long-term economic prospects are strengthening through technological improvements, decreasing battery costs, and supportive policy measures. The results testify that even though diesel trucks are cheaper to acquire, electric trucks offer lower running costs over time, and this applies much more to regional routes. In addition, the study focuses on megawatt-level charging systems important for long-haul electric freight transport by looking at tech needs and barriers to use. By exploring the key elements that influence the use of electric heavy-duty trucks, this thesis gives useful information to industry players, transport operators and those shaping transportation policy as they switch to environmental transportation.