Toward a renewable energy future in Iran : a multi-sector scenario study

Abstract

This thesis presents a comprehensive scenario-based assessment of Iran’s transition to a 100% renewable energy system by mid-century using the LUT Energy System Transition Model. Three scenarios are evaluated including a best policy scenario (BPS), delayed policy scenario (DPS), and current policy scenario (CPS). All major energy-consuming sectors are included and cover power, heating, transportation, industry, and desalination. The BPS achieves 100% renewable energy supply by 2050, with solar photovoltaics contributing over 93% of electricity generation and total installed capacity reaching 1664 GWel. Electricity storage output grows to 511 TWh and heat/gas storage reaches over 4000 GWh, ensuring system flexibility. Power-to-X technologies enable the production of 997 TWhH2,LHV of electro-based hydrogen, 499 TWhMeOH,LHV of electro-based methanol, 125 TWhNH3,LHV of electro-based ammonia, and 62.6 TWhFTL,LHV of electro-based Fischer–Tropsch liquid fuels. By 2050, CO2 emissions fall to zero, and the levelised cost of electricity reaches the lowest among scenarios (24.7 €/MWh). In contrast, the CPS remains fossil-dependent, with fossil fuels supply 95% of total primary energy demand by 2050 and emissions reach 633.2 MtCO2eq annually. The DPS indicates a gradual transition, with 80% electrification and a partial dependence on fossil resources. The findings highlight the essential importance of solar PV and e-fuels, providing crucial insights for policymakers who seek to align Iran’s energy future with climate objectives, economic growth, and resource security.