Powering EU? : energy scenarios for exporting electricity, green hydrogen and e methane from Algeria to Europe

Abstract

The global trend toward climate neutrality and the goals of the Paris Agreement demands the rapid decarbonisation of energy systems in both importing and exporting countries. Algeria, as one of the world’s leading fossil fuel exporters and strategic energy partner of Europe, possesses immense renewable energy potential, particularly in solar and wind. This thesis explores Algeria’s transition from fossil-based to renewable-based domestic and export pathways by 2050, aligned with its national decarbonisation strategy and Europe’s increasing demand for clean energy.

Building on the base model, three renewable energy export scenarios are modelled: electricity via High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC), green hydrogen and synthetic e-methane by using the EnergyPLAN simulation model. Each scenario is evaluated across key dimensions: technical feasibility, economic viability, environmental impact and social benefits.

All three export options —electricity, hydrogen and e-methane —are technically and economically viable but vary in outcomes. While electricity exports create the most jobs, they yield the lowest profits and highest costs; hydrogen balances low costs with moderate job creation and profits, and e-methane offers the highest profits due to market pricing and CO2 credits.

Land use varies by scenario, with hydrogen requiring the least area and electricity the most, while a multi-criteria analysis highlights southwest Algeria as the optimal region for large-scale renewable energy deployment.