Sector coupling, energy systems and 100% renewable energy in Eastern Africa : a transition to 2050

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the potential of Eastern Africa to transition to a 100% renewable energy system by 2050. Using high-resolution scenario modelling, five distinct pathways, including three Best Policy Scenarios, a Delayed Policy Scenario, and a Current Policy Scenario, were evaluated for their techno-economic feasibility. Results highlight that ambitious adoption of solar PV and wind power, combined with deep electrification and sector coupling, can achieve complete defossilisation with lower long-term costs and zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century. Storage technologies and power-to-X applications play critical roles in enabling system flexibility and deep defossilisation of the hard-to-abate energy-industry segments. Despite challenges including financing gaps and limited regional integration, proactive policies that incentivise investment, support decentralised solutions, and promote regional cooperation can unlock Eastern Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, fostering sustainable development, and climate resilience.