Analyzing Potential Scarcity Events in a Wind Power-Based Electricity System - Case Finland

Abstract

This study examines possible scarcity situations in the Finnish power system using historical weather data from years 2014-2024. Wind power production is simulated with current capacity level, while other energy production capacities follow up-to-date estimates. No real power shortages have appeared during the period. The study also investigates the frequency and duration of windless frost periods. During the review period, those periods lasted continuously 4.3 hours on average. In the analysis, scarcity in electricity occurs in one year during the review period, with a shortage lasting three hours and an energy deficit of 325.8 MWh. A sensitivity analysis assuming a 1,200MW transmission line outage reveals shortages averaging 7.7 hours annually, with individual continuous events lasting 2.4 hours. Under baseline conditions the results indicate that electricity sufficiency in Finland is generally adequate, but critical scarcity situations can arise if the system encounters unexpected losses in transmission or production capacity.