Assessing the raw material demand and geopolitical risks of battery sub-technologies in a 1.5°c scenario : the role of alternative technologies and recycling in supply chain resilience

Abstract

This thesis looks at the material demand and geopolitical hazards of battery sub-technologies in a 1.5°C scenario. An examination of existing and alternative battery chemistries was conducted, and the battery sub-technologies LFP, LMO, LiO, LiS, NCA, NCA+, NMC, and SIBs were incorporated into four roadmaps to forecast potential future market developments. By incorporating data about the material composition of those batteries, it was possible to estimate future material demands, geopolitical risks, and recycling potentials. In conclusion, this thesis found that NMC batteries pose a significant danger of geopolitical interruptions and dependencies, while LFP currently provides a more realistic and balanced solution, but LiO, LiS, and SIBs may be advantageous possibilities as the technology matures. However, the material costs of LiO and LiS would increase drastically compared to other technologies, while SIBs could add risks to materials such as Magnesium and Vanadium. The findings of this thesis can assist policymakers, businesses, and users in gaining insights into various potential pathways for battery technologies in the 1.5°C scenario, as well as how varied market shares can influence overall geopolitical risks and recycling opportunities.