Business model of power to hydrogen value chain : possible value chain model of power to hydrogen from Finland to Germany

Abstract

Hydrogen and hydrogen-derived solutions are emerging as critical enablers of Europe’s decarbonization strategy, particularly for industrial sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as steel, chemicals, and maritime transport. This study investigates the techno-economic feasibility of hydrogen and methanol transport from Finland to Germany, addressing a key knowledge gap in the integrated assessment of logistics, infrastructure, and cost competitiveness along this emerging corridor. Using a qualitative, literature-based research design that includes peer-reviewed studies, policy papers, and industry reports including EU hydrogen strategy documents, Fingrid’s 2030 export roadmap, and case studies under the European Hydrogen Backbone and Clean Hydrogen Partnership programs. In this study, comparative evaluation of four transport modes which involve upgraded pipelines, liquid hydrogen shipping, methanol-based transport, and intermodal logistics, were undertaken, focusing on capital and operational expenditures, infrastructure readiness, and scalability. Results reveal that pipeline retrofitting offers the most cost-effective and scalable solution, with amortized investment costs ranging from €0.15–0.22/kg H₂ and operational costs between €0.08–0.12/kg H₂ per year. Methanol-based transport, though less energy-efficient, provides flexibility and compatibility with existing fuel infrastructure, supporting early-stage market deployment. In contrast, liquid hydrogen shipping and intermodal options are constrained by high energy losses and capital intensity. The estimated levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) between 2025–2030 ranges from €3–4.15/kg electrolytic H₂ higher than prior projections, but technically viable under coordinated infrastructure and policy frameworks. The study concludes that a hybrid export model combining upgraded pipelines for transportation of baseload of hydrogen and methanol shipping for flexible capacity is best aligned with Fingrid’s 2030 hydrogen export targets and EU climate goals. Achieving this requires synchronized investment, cross-border regulatory harmonization, and private-sector collaboration. The findings contribute to strategic planning for Finland’s role as a Northern European clean energy hub and provide evidence-based insights for policymakers and investors navigating the hydrogen economy transition.