Regional Electricity Impacts of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Electrification: A case study

Abstract

The electrification of Finland’s heavy-duty vehicles fleet is expected to involve uneven regional impacts on electricity grids. This study carries out a regional-level spatial analysis to investigate shifts in regional electricity demand under three Battery Electric Trucks adoption scenarios (10%, 50%, and 100%), combining traffic data with official energy statistics. Results show considerable regional disparities, while in northern regions like North Ostrobothnia, there are surpluses exceeding +4,400 GWh, urban-industrial regions like Uusimaa and Pirkanmaa would suffer from deficits, reaching -7,760 GWh and -4,778 GWh, after the switch to completely electric vehicles. Uusimaa would require 1,303 GWh more electricity than before, equivalent to an 8% rise in demand. Without taking necessary actions, the peak loads could cause the stability of the local grids. Accordingly, this study suggests a phased policy framework: in the short term (by 2025), implement smart charging and help regions adapt their electricity demands; in the medium term (by 2030), enlarge cross-regional transmission capacity and let northern surplus renewable energy go to southern centers; and in the long term (toward 100% electrification by 2035), upgrade energy and transport governance and improve interconnection of northern grids.