Techno-economic analysis and cost modeling of small modular reactors for coupled energy production in Finland

Abstract

This thesis investigates the technical and economic feasibility of deploying Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to decarbonize Finland’s energy sector, focusing on district heating, electricity, and hydrogen production. The research provides a comparative analysis of three conceptual SMR designs: a 50 MW heat-only reactor (LDR-50), a 300 MW boiling water reactor (BWRX-300) for Combined Heat and Power (CHP), and a 160 MW high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) for electricity and hydrogen co-generation. A detailed, multi-factor cost estimation model is developed, incorporating scaling laws, learning rates, modularization, and country-specific adjustments for materials and labor. Financial viability is assessed using Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) within the context of Finnish energy markets. Results indicate that heat-only and CHP-configured reactors show the strongest financial metrics under current market conditions, driven by valuable heat revenue. However, the capital cost of First of a Kind (FOAK) units remains a significant barrier. While the HTGR presents higher initial cost and technological novelty, its operational flexibility and suitability for high-temperature industrial heat and green hydrogen production position it as a strategic option for long-term energy versatility. The study concludes that SMRs can address specific gaps in Finland’s energy portfolio, but successful deployment hinges on managing first-of-a-kind costs, securing stable heat off-take agreements, and potentially pairing with high-value, constant-demand applications like data centers to mitigate financial risk.