Bridging demand-side growth dynamics and supply-side design for rural mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa
Tomás Fillol, Leticia (2026-05-29)
Väitöskirja
29.05.2026
Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT
Acta Universitatis Lappeenrantaensis
School of Energy Systems
School of Energy Systems, Sähkötekniikka
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In reference to IEEE copyrighted material which is used with permission in this thesis, the IEEE does not endorse any of Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. If interested in reprinting/republishing IEEE copyrighted material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution, please go to http://www.ieee.org/publications_ standards/publications/rights/rights_link.html to learn how to obtain a License from RightsLink.
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https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-412-464-5
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-412-464-5
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Tiivistelmä
Affordable and reliable electricity is a fundamental driver of socioeconomic development, yet over 700 million people, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, remain without electricity access. As global electrification efforts extend to reach last-mile communities, energy system planners face new challenges related to geographic isolation, low population density, and limited economic activity.
Mini-grids (MGs) are increasingly recognized as a viable option for rural electrification, especially in remote or sparsely populated areas where extending the main grid is prohibitively expensive or technically challenging. By providing decentralized, grid-like electricity services, MGs can support energy needs for both domestic and productive purposes. However, their long-term viability depends on addressing several persistent challenges, particularly uncertain and evolving demand, limited customer ability to pay, and the need for robust financial models that sustain operations in low-income, low-demand environments. This doctoral dissertation contributes to the field in three key areas: (i) identifying the drivers and timing of appliance uptake, with special attention to its link with the emergence of informal income-generating activities; (ii) developing a framework to improve demand growth modeling; and (iii) evaluating the diffusion of innovative and inclusive private rural mini-grids in selected African countries.
A multi-method research design is employed, integrating quantitative and qualitative analyses and methods. Quantitative methods, including econometric modeling, clustering techniques, and energy system modeling, are used to analyze appliance adoption and demand growth dynamics. These insights inform a bottom-up model to estimate energy consumption through a data-driven engineering methodology, with outputs subsequently used for system optimization. Complementing these technical approaches, qualitative approaches incorporate stakeholder surveys, value chain mapping, and innovation system analysis to explore the evolution of inclusive business models and the broader ecosystem of mini-grid deployment in Kenya and Rwanda, which are the case-study countries in this study.
This mixed-method strategy enables a comprehensive understanding of both user-side behaviors and supply-side planning in rural electrification contexts. By integrating user needs into energy planning and modeling, this research advances bottom-up load estimation methodologies and provides actionable insights to improve the socioeconomic impact of rural electrification initiatives.
Mini-grids (MGs) are increasingly recognized as a viable option for rural electrification, especially in remote or sparsely populated areas where extending the main grid is prohibitively expensive or technically challenging. By providing decentralized, grid-like electricity services, MGs can support energy needs for both domestic and productive purposes. However, their long-term viability depends on addressing several persistent challenges, particularly uncertain and evolving demand, limited customer ability to pay, and the need for robust financial models that sustain operations in low-income, low-demand environments. This doctoral dissertation contributes to the field in three key areas: (i) identifying the drivers and timing of appliance uptake, with special attention to its link with the emergence of informal income-generating activities; (ii) developing a framework to improve demand growth modeling; and (iii) evaluating the diffusion of innovative and inclusive private rural mini-grids in selected African countries.
A multi-method research design is employed, integrating quantitative and qualitative analyses and methods. Quantitative methods, including econometric modeling, clustering techniques, and energy system modeling, are used to analyze appliance adoption and demand growth dynamics. These insights inform a bottom-up model to estimate energy consumption through a data-driven engineering methodology, with outputs subsequently used for system optimization. Complementing these technical approaches, qualitative approaches incorporate stakeholder surveys, value chain mapping, and innovation system analysis to explore the evolution of inclusive business models and the broader ecosystem of mini-grid deployment in Kenya and Rwanda, which are the case-study countries in this study.
This mixed-method strategy enables a comprehensive understanding of both user-side behaviors and supply-side planning in rural electrification contexts. By integrating user needs into energy planning and modeling, this research advances bottom-up load estimation methodologies and provides actionable insights to improve the socioeconomic impact of rural electrification initiatives.
Kokoelmat
- Väitöskirjat [1212]