The impact of U.S. tariffs on European exporters : strategic responses and market reorientation
Palombizio, Stefano (2026)
Pro gradu -tutkielma
2026
School of Business and Management, Kauppatieteet
Kaikki oikeudet pidätetään.
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2026060261335
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2026060261335
Tiivistelmä
The main purpose of this thesis is to examine tariff-related shocks and trade policy uncertainty affecting European exporting companies, in terms of market performance and strategic responses. The thesis focuses on Italian companies as an illustrative case within the broader EU27 context. Tariffs are not treated only as cost shocks, but also as part of a wider uncertainty environment that may influence firms’ commitment to the U.S. market and shape responses across sectors and firms.
The research uses a mixed-method approach. The quantitative analysis relies on monthly Eurostat export data, measured in values and quantities, for Italy and the EU27 toward the United States and to the world. Two periods are analyzed: 2016 vs. 2017–2020 and 2024 vs. 2025. The study combines descriptive analysis with a comparative DiD model, using pharmaceuticals as the control sector. The qualitative part is based on semi-structured interviews with Italian food and wine companies, analyzed through the Gioia framework.
The quantitative results show that tariff-exposed sectors were relatively less oriented toward the U.S. market than pharmaceuticals, especially in terms of export quantities. However, the data do not indicate a general collapse of exports, and the recent pattern is broadly similar for Italy and the EU27. The qualitative findings show heterogeneous firm responses. Tariffs affected margins and profitability, while uncertainty influenced planning, investment timing, and attention to alternative markets. Firms mainly adopted strategic moderation rather than withdrawing from the U.S. market, which is still considered strong and attractive.
In summary, tariff-related shocks affected exporters through cost pressure, uncertainty, and bargaining difficulties. The findings suggest that policy support should not be limited to tariff-related costs, but should also address market-development efforts, information access, distributor relationships, and regulatory constraints.
The research uses a mixed-method approach. The quantitative analysis relies on monthly Eurostat export data, measured in values and quantities, for Italy and the EU27 toward the United States and to the world. Two periods are analyzed: 2016 vs. 2017–2020 and 2024 vs. 2025. The study combines descriptive analysis with a comparative DiD model, using pharmaceuticals as the control sector. The qualitative part is based on semi-structured interviews with Italian food and wine companies, analyzed through the Gioia framework.
The quantitative results show that tariff-exposed sectors were relatively less oriented toward the U.S. market than pharmaceuticals, especially in terms of export quantities. However, the data do not indicate a general collapse of exports, and the recent pattern is broadly similar for Italy and the EU27. The qualitative findings show heterogeneous firm responses. Tariffs affected margins and profitability, while uncertainty influenced planning, investment timing, and attention to alternative markets. Firms mainly adopted strategic moderation rather than withdrawing from the U.S. market, which is still considered strong and attractive.
In summary, tariff-related shocks affected exporters through cost pressure, uncertainty, and bargaining difficulties. The findings suggest that policy support should not be limited to tariff-related costs, but should also address market-development efforts, information access, distributor relationships, and regulatory constraints.