Characteristics of biofuel price uncertainty – A systematic literature review

Abstract

As the global demand and supply of biofuels increases, the need to understand price uncertainty related to biofuel investments and operations based on biofuels becomes more apparent. This systematic literature review examines the uncertainty, risk, and volatility of biofuel prices as studied in academic literature between 2010 and 2025. The review aims to shed light on how the different aspects of price uncertainty have been previously studied. The review identifies three overarching themes in literature: studies focusing on investments, price competitiveness, and methods to manage uncertainty. The findings reveal that there is a lack of research on the international biofuel market. Furthermore, there seems to be a bias towards quantitative research methods and the study of supply chain optimization. The review highlights the need for more diverse research approaches and a broader geographic scope to better understand biofuel price uncertainty. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for stakeholders interested in biofuel investments and concerned about future price uncertainties.