Envisioning a 100% bio-based society : systems thinking for sustainable development in Finland

Abstract

This thesis examines how Finland could move from fossil-based packaging towards a 100% bio-based and circular packaging system. Packaging is used as the focal system because it connects material production, consumption, logistics, waste management, policy and consumer behaviour. The study applies systems thinking together with secondary life cycle assessment (LCA) evidence and a high-level techno-economic analysis (TEA) perspective. The analysis compares fossil-based and bio-based packaging pathways across feedstock sourcing, technical function, environmental impacts, circularity potential, infrastructure compatibility, cost, scalability and policy alignment. The findings show that bio-based packaging can reduce dependence on fossil carbon and support Finland’s bioeconomy, but it is not automatically sustainable. Its benefits depend on sustainable biomass sourcing, design for recycling or reuse, reliable labelling, compatible collection systems, realistic end-of-life routes and economic feasibility. The thesis concludes that a credible transition requires coordinated policy, industry investment, consumer guidance and circular infrastructure rather than simple material substitution.