Techno-economic analysis on liquid hydrogen to zero emission mobility

Abstract

Decarbonizing long-haul heavy-duty freight transport requires cost-competitive zero emission energy supply chains. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of three LH₂-based conversion chains for 100 heavy-duty trucks along a 500 km corridor from Hamburg to Frankfurt-am-Main in Germany. A bottom-up energy flow model and life-cycle cost framework are applied to quantify energy demand, system-level efficiencies and four levelized cost indicators under consistent system boundaries and fleet assumptions.

In chain 1, direct LH2 delivery to hydrogen refuelling stations for the hydrogen fuel cell trucks achieves 96.7% efficiency and an LCOH of 7.91 €/kg, competitive with commercial refuelling prices in Germany. In chain 2, a pipeline-based supply model achieves 91.7% efficiency. For a new dedicated hydrogen pipeline, chain 2 achieves a high LCOH of 64.92 €/kg. However, with shared pipeline infrastructure costs across a broader network at mature-stage deployment, chain 2 can achieve a reduced LCOH of 8.89 €/kg. In chain 3, gas turbine conversion to electricity for recharging battery-electric trucks achieves only 33.6% efficiency and an LCOE of 0.71 €/kWh, approximately 1.8 times the commercial recharging price in Germany. LH₂ fuel cost is the dominant operating cost driver across all three conversion chains.

Chain 1 with direct LH₂ delivery model is the most efficient and feasible for short-term deployment. Chain 2 with pipeline supply model requires network-scale utilization. Chain 3 with gas turbine LH₂-to-electricity conversion model requires fundamental technological improvement to become efficient and competitive. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for investment decisions for developing alternative fuel infrastructure in Germany under the EU’s AFIR directive.