IDEAS for Strategic Technology Management: Design of an electronically mediated scenario method

Abstract

The age-old adage goes that nothing in this world lasts but change, and this generation has indeed seen changes that are unprecedented. Business managers do not have the luxury of going with the flow: they have to plan ahead, to think strategies that will meet the changing conditions, however stormy the weather seems to be. This demand raises the question of whether there is something a manager or planner can do to circumvent the eye of the storm in the future? Intuitively, one can either run on the risk of something happening without preparing, or one can try to prepare oneself. Preparing by planning for each eventuality and contingency would be impractical and prohibitively expensive, so one needs to develop foreknowledge, or foresight past the horizon of the present and the immediate future.

The research mission in this study is to support strategic technology management by designing an effective and efficient scenario method to induce foresight to practicing managers. The design science framework guides this study in developing and evaluating the IDEAS method. The IDEAS method is an electronically mediated scenario method that is specifically designed to be an effective and accessible. The design is based on the state-of-the-art in scenario planning, and the product is a technology-based artifact to solve the foresight problem. This study demonstrates the utility, quality and efficacy of the artifact through a multi-method empirical evaluation study, first by experimental testing and secondly through two case studies. The construction of the artifact is rigorously documented as justification knowledge as well as the principles of form and function on the general level, and later through the description and evaluation of instantiations.

This design contributes both to practice and foundation of the design. The IDEAS method contributes to the state-of-the-art in scenario planning by offering a light-weight and intuitive scenario method for resource constrained applications. Additionally, the study contributes to the foundations and methods of design by forging a clear design science framework which is followed rigorously.

To summarize, the IDEAS method is offered for strategic technology management, with a confident belief that it will enable gaining foresight and aid the users to choose trajectories past the gales of creative destruction and off to a brighter future.